Simulation and hedging oil price with geometric Brownian Motion and single-step binomial price model

This paper[1] uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to model the behaviour of crude oil price in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The performance of the GBM method is compared with the naïve strategy using different forecast evaluation techniques. The results from the forecasting accuracy statistics suggest that the GBM outperforms the naïve model and can act as a proxy for modelling movement of oil prices. We also test the empirical viability of using a call option contract to hedge oil price declines. The results from the simulations reveal that the single-step binomial price model can be effective in hedging oil price volatility. The findings from this paper will be of interest to the government of Nigeria that views the price of oil as one of the key variables in the national budget. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil price volatility; Geometric Brownian Motion; Monte Carlo Simulation; Single-Step Binomial Price Model [1] Acknowledgement: We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and kind considerations. Memos to: Azeez Abiola Oyedele, School of Business and Enterprise, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus, Paisley PA1 2BE, Scotland, Email: [email protected]

Forecasting OPEC oil price: a comparison of parametric stochastic models

Most academic papers on oil price forecasting have frequently focused on the use of WTI and European Brent oil price series with little focus on other equally important international oil price benchmarks such as the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB). The ORB is a weighted average of 11-member countries crude streams weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. This paper compares the forecasting accuracy of four stochastic processes and four univariate random walk models using daily data of OPEC Reference Basket series. The study finds that the random walk univariate model outperforms the other stochastic processes. An element of uncertainty was introduced into the point estimates by deriving probability distribution that describes the possible price paths on a given day and their likelihood of occurrence. This will help decision makers, traders and analysts to have a better understanding of the possible daily prices that could occur. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil Price Forecasting, Probability Distributions, and Forecast Evaluation Statistics, Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion process, GARCH Model

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Identifying Forged and Phony Uniform Resource Locators (URLs)

Since the invention of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), there has been a great shift from the erstwhile traditional approach of handling information across the globe to the usage of this innovation. The application of this initiative cut across almost all areas of human endeavours. ICT is widely utilized in education and production sectors as well as in various financial institutions. It is of note that many people are using it genuinely to carry out their day to day activities while others are using it to perform nefarious activities at the detriment of other cyber users. According to several reports which are discussed in the introductory part of this work, millions of people have become victims of fake Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) sent to their mails by spammers. Financial institutions are not left out in the monumental loss recorded through this illicit act over the years. It is worth mentioning that, despite several approaches currently in place, none could confidently be confirmed to provide the best and reliable solution. According to several research findings reported in the literature, researchers have demonstrated how machine learning algorithms could be employed to verify and confirm compromised and fake URLs in the cyberspace. Inconsistencies have however been noticed in the researchers’ findings and also their corresponding results are not dependable based on the values obtained and conclusions drawn from them. Against this backdrop, the authors carried out a comparative analysis of three learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree and Logistics Regression Model) for verification of compromised, suspicious and fake URLs and determine which is the best of all based on the metrics (F-Measure, Precision and Recall) used for evaluation. Based on the confusion metrics measurement, the result obtained shows that the Decision Tree (ID3) algorithm achieves the highest values for recall, precision and f-measure. It unarguably provides efficient and credible means of maximizing the detection of compromised and malicious URLs. Finally, for future work, authors are of the opinion that two or more supervised learning algorithms can be hybridized to form a single effective and more efficient algorithm for fake URLs verification.Keywords: Learning-algorithms, Forged-URL, Phoney-URL, performance-compariso

Long-lived alpha emitters concentrations in the spices consumed in Iraq using CR-39 detector

البهارات تستخدم كاضافات على الطعام في مختلف البلدان ، من ضمنها بلدنا، لذا من الضروري التاكد من خلوها من المواد المشعة الضارة بصحة الانسان. هدف هذا البحث كان قياس تراكيز باعثات الفا ، وقياس الجرعة السنوية الفعالة  AED الناتجة من تناول الرادون. استخدم كاشف  CR-39 في قياس تراكيز الرادون ، الراديوم واليورانيوم في 24 عينة من البهارات المختارة من الاسواق. تراكيز الرادون وجد في هذا البحث تتغير من 65.102 الى 195.30 Bq/m3 وبقيمة متوسطة 126.47 Bq/m3 وهذه القيمة هي اعلى بقليل من  100 Bq/m3 المستوى او الحدود المقبولة من منظمة الصحة العالمية (WHO) واقل من 200 Bq/m3 التي هي حدود اللوائح البريطانية للوقاية من الاشعاع (NRPB) والاوربية. الجرعة السنوية الفعالة للرادون تراوحت بين 1.642- 4.927 mSv/y التي هي ضمن المدى 0.2 - 10 mSv/y  للجنة الامم المتحدة لاثار الاشعاع الذري (UNSCEAR). تراكيز الراديوم تغيرت بين 0.446 - 1.367 Bq/Kg بمتوسط 0.943 Bq/Kg. وتراكيز فعالية اليورانيوم كانت في المدى 4.408 - 13.520 Bq/Kg وبقيمة متوسطة 9.322 Bq/Kg. هذا العمل قاس التراكيز المحددة للمواد المشعة الموجودة في البهارات وبين ان هذه البهارات امنة للتناول.Spices are mainly used as additives to diets in different countries, including our country, so it is necessary to ensure that they are free of radioactive substances harmful to human health. This research aimed to measure the concentrations of alpha emitters, and measure the annual effective dose AED resulting from the intake of radon. The CR-39 detector used to measure radon, radium, and uranium concentrations in the 24 spices samples selected from markets. In this work the radon concentrations in the samples were found to vary from  65.102 to 195.30 Bq/m3 with 126.47 Bq/m3 a mean value, this mean value is a small amount over 100 Bq/m3 the reference level limits of the World Health Organization (WHO), below 200 Bq/m3 of the UK Board of National Radiation Protection (NRPB) limits and below the level of the European Recommendation Commission. The annual radon effective dose varied between 1.642-4.927 mSv/y which is within the range of 0.2-10 mSv/y of (UNSCEAR). Radium contents vary between 0.446-1.367 Bq/Kg with 0.943 Bq/Kg as a mean value. The range of uranium activity concentrations is between 4.408-13.520 Bq/Kg with a mean value of 9.322 Bq/Kg. This work identified and measured the specified concentrations of radionuclide present in spices showed that spices are safe for consumption

UDCA: Energy Optimization III Wireless Sensor Networks Using Uniform Distributed Clustering Algorithms

Transceivers are the major energy consumption in a Wireless Sensor Network which is made of low-power, small in size, low cost and multi-functional nodes. These sensor nodes are operated by batteries which put significant constraint to the energy available to them. Each sensor node collects sensed data and forwards it to a single processing centre called the base station which uses all reported data to detect an event or determine the changes in an environment. In present study, we propose energy optimization in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) using uniform distributed clustering algorithms. One ofthe algorithms distributes cluster heads uniformly in each cluster and each non -cluster head transmit its data to the cluster heads with short distance which reduces the communication distance of each node. Thus, minimizes the energy consumption of sensor nodes. The second algorithm generates cluster heads in hierarchical form in order to transmit the aggregate data to the base station. It was observed that there is increase in energy savings as we move from bottom up in the hierarchy. Both UDCA protocol and Low Energy Adaptive Cluster Hierarchy protocol (LEACH) were simulated. The simulation results show significant reduction in energy consumption of sensor nodes and cluster heads are more uniformly distributed among all nodes in UDCA compare with LEACH and extend the wireless sensor networks lifetime

A Dependable Model for Attaining Maximum Authentication Security Procedure in a Grid Based Environment

Grid computing is an emergent computing innovation which offers endless access to computing infrastructure across various organizations (academia and industry). Since this technology allows aggregation of various computer systems for usage by different users to run applications, the information stored on it which may be sensitive and private, remains vulnerable. According to related research on the attribute based access control for grid computing there is no adequate and appropriate security mechanism to authorize and authenticate users before accessing information on a grid system. The issue of security in grid technology has not been fully addressed even though it is a precondition for optimizing grid usability. Having realized the paucity of security guarantees, this research work focuses on developing a model for securing data and applications deployed on a grid on the basis of double identity authentication and public key. The implementation of the model has undoubtedly guaranteed the security of sensitive information on a grid vis-a-vis strict adherence to security policies and protocols

Threats to E-Government Implementation in the Civil Service: Nigeria as a Case Study

The rapid advancement in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has undoubtedly influenced positive changes in carrying out administrative functions in government institutions. The ICT adoption rate in Africa is not impressive when compared to the more developed countries of the world. Nigeria, as a case study in this scenario, has also not implemented E-Government impressively, according to the required standards set up by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). A comprehensive study conducted on the application and implementation of E-Government in Nigeria has provided some metrics that examine the stumbling blocks for realization of adequate and efficient E-Government implementation in the civil service. The research was carried out in the federal civil service in Nigeria in two phases namely, pre-IT implementation phase and post-IT implementation phase. Our findings reveal that ICT implementation will remain elusive in the civil service as long as the as threats explained below remain unaddressed. It has therefore been asserted that the need to overcome these threats is a precondition for realization of E-Government implementation in the federal civil servic

Structure of triosephosphate isomerase (TIM) from Methanocaldococcus jannaschii

The crystal structure of a recombinant triosephosphate isomerase (TIM) from the archaeabacterium Methanocaldococcus jannaschii has been determined at a resolution of 2.3 Å using X-ray diffraction data from a tetartohedrally twinned crystal. M. jannaschii TIM (MjTIM) is tetrameric, as suggested by solution studies and from the crystal structure, as is the case for two other structurally characterized archaeal TIMs. The archaeabacterial TIMs are shorter compared with the dimeric TIMs; the insertions in the dimeric TIMs occur in the vicinity of the tetramer interface, resulting in a hindrance to tetramerization in the dimeric TIMs. The charge distribution on the surface of the archaeal TIMs also facilitates tetramerization. Analysis of the barrel interactions in TIMs suggests that these interactions are unlikely to account for the thermal stability of the archaeal TIMs. A novelty of the unliganded structure of MjTIM is the complete absence of electron density for the loop 6 residues. The disorder of this loop could be ascribed to a missing salt bridge between residues at the N- and C-terminal ends of the loop in MjTIM

The cardio- and endothelial protective effects of ethyl methyl hydroxyl pyridine malate in modeling L-name induced nitric oxide deficiency

Currently, endothelial dysfunction is considered as a predictor of a number of pathologies, including arterial hypertension, ischemic heart disease, chronic heart failure, and is also a pathogenetic component of organ damage in diabetes, hypo estrogenic and other conditions. The purpose of the study is an experimental study of the cardio and vasoprotective effects of etoxidol under conditions of endothelial dysfunctio